⚒️ Metals: The Foundation of Industrial Growth
Why are metal prices booming?
Let’s break it down in human terms:
Massive Infrastructure Projects
India, US, China, and Europe are all spending billions on roads, bridges, railways, smart cities, and housing.
All of that needs steel, cement, aluminum, copper, etc.
Clean Energy = More Copper & Aluminum
Solar panels, EVs, and wind turbines need a lot more copper, lithium, and rare metals than conventional energy.
This creates a demand explosion for base metals.
Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Mines across the world (especially in Africa, Chile, and Australia) are facing labour shortages, political instability, or environmental restrictions.
Less mining = less supply = prices go up.
China’s Comeback
China is the largest consumer of metals globally.
After a slow period in 2022–23, it’s back with a stimulus to revive housing and infrastructure — adding massive demand pressure.
🔋 Energy: Fuel for the Supercycle
What’s happening in oil, gas, and coal?
Crude Oil Above $90/Barrel
Conflicts (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) + OPEC production cuts = tight supply
Despite the push for renewables, the world still runs on oil for transport and manufacturing
Natural Gas Shortages in Europe/Asia
War-related disruptions in Russian supply have caused natural gas prices to skyrocket
LNG imports from the US and Qatar are booming — good for companies in that ecosystem
Coal Prices Rising Again
Despite climate goals, India, China, and others are still using coal for base power
Coal India and related PSUs have seen strong earnings due to volume demand + price support
🧾 How This Affects the Indian Market
India is both a major consumer and a growing exporter of various commodities.
Winners in the Supercycle:
1. Metal Stocks (Steel, Aluminum, Copper)
Company Why It’s Benefiting
Tata Steel Global presence + rising prices = higher margins
JSW Steel Export growth + capex-driven demand
Hindalco Aluminum giant + Novelis (US-based unit)
Hindustan Copper India’s only copper miner; global demand rising
2. Energy Stocks (Oil, Gas, Coal)
Company Why It’s Benefiting
ONGC Rising crude prices = stronger profitability
Oil India Smaller PSU with strong rally potential
Coal India Massive volumes, dividend, pricing power
Reliance Petrochemicals + oil refining benefits
3. Ancillary & Export-Based Stocks
Company Role in Supercycle
NMDC Supplies iron ore – key to steelmakers
MOIL Manganese supplier for steel industry
APL Apollo Tubes Beneficiary of infra + steel boom
Welspun Corp Pipes for oil & gas pipelines
📊 Real Performance: Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s take a quick look at recent returns (approx. from Jan 2023 to July 2025):
Stock Price in Jan 2023 Price in July 2025 Approx % Gain
Tata Steel ₹110 ₹170+ 55%+
JSW Steel ₹690 ₹930+ 35%+
Hindalco ₹430 ₹675+ 55%+
Coal India ₹220 ₹450+ 100%+
ONGC ₹150 ₹270+ 80%+
These are fundamentally driven rallies — not pump-and-dump moves. That’s the beauty of supercycles.
📈 Technical Outlook in July 2025
Nifty Metal Index:
📌 Near all-time highs (~9,000+ zone)
📈 Trend: Strong bullish
🔁 Expect periodic corrections of 5–7%, but uptrend likely to continue
Nifty Energy Index:
📌 In a broad uptrend, thanks to Coal India, ONGC, Reliance
📈 Breakouts seen in power generation and refining stocks
🎯 Next resistance at 30,000+, support at 28,500
🧠 What Traders & Investors Should Do
🧭 For Traders:
Focus on volume breakouts in metal & energy stocks
Watch for sectoral momentum using indices like Nifty Metal, Nifty Energy
Use Futures & Options (F&O) strategies like:
Call buying on breakout confirmation
Bull call spreads in ONGC, Hindalco, Tata Steel
Short straddles for sideways phases in Coal India
📆 For Swing Traders:
Identify weekly breakout patterns (flags, cup & handle, triangle)
Use trailing SL and partial booking (these stocks move fast)
Best timeframe: 2–4 week swings, especially in trending names
💼 For Long-Term Investors:
Allocate 10–15% of your portfolio to core metal/energy stocks
Focus on low-debt, dividend-paying companies (e.g., Coal India, ONGC)
SIP or staggered entries work well in a volatile commodity cycle
Expect volatility — supercycles are not linear
❗ Risks & Cautions
Every rally has its risks. Here’s what to keep in mind:
Risk Impact
Global Recession Could reduce commodity demand globally
China Slowdown Big impact on copper/steel demand
Currency Volatility Affects import/export profitability
Policy Changes Carbon tax, ESG push may hurt coal/oil stocks
Overheating Stocks may correct 15–20% if valuations get stretched
Always use risk management — especially in leveraged trades.
🗺️ Global Supercycle Factors to Watch in 2025–26
🛢️ Crude oil production quotas (OPEC+ decisions)
🏗️ China’s stimulus on construction and EVs
🌱 ESG push: Will governments ban/restrict dirty fuels faster?
💹 US Fed rate cuts/inflation outlook (affects commodity pricing)
🧾 Mining policies in resource-rich countries (Africa, Latin America)
These global forces shape how long the current commodity upcycle will last.
✍️ Final Thoughts
The commodity supercycle in 2025 is real and being driven by multi-year global trends in infrastructure, energy transformation, and supply limitations. This is not just a short-term rally — it’s part of a structural shift.
If you’re a trader — this sector is offering sharp, trend-friendly price action.
If you’re an investor — this is your chance to ride secular growth in India’s industrial backbone.
💡 “When the world builds, commodities boom. And when that boom is real, wealth is created.”
Why are metal prices booming?
Let’s break it down in human terms:
Massive Infrastructure Projects
India, US, China, and Europe are all spending billions on roads, bridges, railways, smart cities, and housing.
All of that needs steel, cement, aluminum, copper, etc.
Clean Energy = More Copper & Aluminum
Solar panels, EVs, and wind turbines need a lot more copper, lithium, and rare metals than conventional energy.
This creates a demand explosion for base metals.
Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Mines across the world (especially in Africa, Chile, and Australia) are facing labour shortages, political instability, or environmental restrictions.
Less mining = less supply = prices go up.
China’s Comeback
China is the largest consumer of metals globally.
After a slow period in 2022–23, it’s back with a stimulus to revive housing and infrastructure — adding massive demand pressure.
🔋 Energy: Fuel for the Supercycle
What’s happening in oil, gas, and coal?
Crude Oil Above $90/Barrel
Conflicts (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) + OPEC production cuts = tight supply
Despite the push for renewables, the world still runs on oil for transport and manufacturing
Natural Gas Shortages in Europe/Asia
War-related disruptions in Russian supply have caused natural gas prices to skyrocket
LNG imports from the US and Qatar are booming — good for companies in that ecosystem
Coal Prices Rising Again
Despite climate goals, India, China, and others are still using coal for base power
Coal India and related PSUs have seen strong earnings due to volume demand + price support
🧾 How This Affects the Indian Market
India is both a major consumer and a growing exporter of various commodities.
Winners in the Supercycle:
1. Metal Stocks (Steel, Aluminum, Copper)
Company Why It’s Benefiting
Tata Steel Global presence + rising prices = higher margins
JSW Steel Export growth + capex-driven demand
Hindalco Aluminum giant + Novelis (US-based unit)
Hindustan Copper India’s only copper miner; global demand rising
2. Energy Stocks (Oil, Gas, Coal)
Company Why It’s Benefiting
ONGC Rising crude prices = stronger profitability
Oil India Smaller PSU with strong rally potential
Coal India Massive volumes, dividend, pricing power
Reliance Petrochemicals + oil refining benefits
3. Ancillary & Export-Based Stocks
Company Role in Supercycle
NMDC Supplies iron ore – key to steelmakers
MOIL Manganese supplier for steel industry
APL Apollo Tubes Beneficiary of infra + steel boom
Welspun Corp Pipes for oil & gas pipelines
📊 Real Performance: Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s take a quick look at recent returns (approx. from Jan 2023 to July 2025):
Stock Price in Jan 2023 Price in July 2025 Approx % Gain
Tata Steel ₹110 ₹170+ 55%+
JSW Steel ₹690 ₹930+ 35%+
Hindalco ₹430 ₹675+ 55%+
Coal India ₹220 ₹450+ 100%+
ONGC ₹150 ₹270+ 80%+
These are fundamentally driven rallies — not pump-and-dump moves. That’s the beauty of supercycles.
📈 Technical Outlook in July 2025
Nifty Metal Index:
📌 Near all-time highs (~9,000+ zone)
📈 Trend: Strong bullish
🔁 Expect periodic corrections of 5–7%, but uptrend likely to continue
Nifty Energy Index:
📌 In a broad uptrend, thanks to Coal India, ONGC, Reliance
📈 Breakouts seen in power generation and refining stocks
🎯 Next resistance at 30,000+, support at 28,500
🧠 What Traders & Investors Should Do
🧭 For Traders:
Focus on volume breakouts in metal & energy stocks
Watch for sectoral momentum using indices like Nifty Metal, Nifty Energy
Use Futures & Options (F&O) strategies like:
Call buying on breakout confirmation
Bull call spreads in ONGC, Hindalco, Tata Steel
Short straddles for sideways phases in Coal India
📆 For Swing Traders:
Identify weekly breakout patterns (flags, cup & handle, triangle)
Use trailing SL and partial booking (these stocks move fast)
Best timeframe: 2–4 week swings, especially in trending names
💼 For Long-Term Investors:
Allocate 10–15% of your portfolio to core metal/energy stocks
Focus on low-debt, dividend-paying companies (e.g., Coal India, ONGC)
SIP or staggered entries work well in a volatile commodity cycle
Expect volatility — supercycles are not linear
❗ Risks & Cautions
Every rally has its risks. Here’s what to keep in mind:
Risk Impact
Global Recession Could reduce commodity demand globally
China Slowdown Big impact on copper/steel demand
Currency Volatility Affects import/export profitability
Policy Changes Carbon tax, ESG push may hurt coal/oil stocks
Overheating Stocks may correct 15–20% if valuations get stretched
Always use risk management — especially in leveraged trades.
🗺️ Global Supercycle Factors to Watch in 2025–26
🛢️ Crude oil production quotas (OPEC+ decisions)
🏗️ China’s stimulus on construction and EVs
🌱 ESG push: Will governments ban/restrict dirty fuels faster?
💹 US Fed rate cuts/inflation outlook (affects commodity pricing)
🧾 Mining policies in resource-rich countries (Africa, Latin America)
These global forces shape how long the current commodity upcycle will last.
✍️ Final Thoughts
The commodity supercycle in 2025 is real and being driven by multi-year global trends in infrastructure, energy transformation, and supply limitations. This is not just a short-term rally — it’s part of a structural shift.
If you’re a trader — this sector is offering sharp, trend-friendly price action.
If you’re an investor — this is your chance to ride secular growth in India’s industrial backbone.
💡 “When the world builds, commodities boom. And when that boom is real, wealth is created.”
Hello Guys ..
WhatsApp link- wa.link/d997q0
Email - techncialexpress@gmail.com ...
Script Coder/Trader//Investor from India. Drop a comment or DM if you have any questions! Let’s grow together!
WhatsApp link- wa.link/d997q0
Email - techncialexpress@gmail.com ...
Script Coder/Trader//Investor from India. Drop a comment or DM if you have any questions! Let’s grow together!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Hello Guys ..
WhatsApp link- wa.link/d997q0
Email - techncialexpress@gmail.com ...
Script Coder/Trader//Investor from India. Drop a comment or DM if you have any questions! Let’s grow together!
WhatsApp link- wa.link/d997q0
Email - techncialexpress@gmail.com ...
Script Coder/Trader//Investor from India. Drop a comment or DM if you have any questions! Let’s grow together!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.